Trump’s misadventure

AFTER keeping the world on tenterhooks for nearly three months, signals have emerged simultaneously from both the US and Iran that an end to the war is in sight. Both sides hint that negotiations to end the war have reached the decisive last phase and the Strait of Hormuz could soon see a full normalisation of shipping traffic. Clearly, both sides are tired — and have learnt bitter lessons. Worse, the world was put through immense sufferings, hurting national economies and putting peoples’ lives in jeopardy. The US, which initiated the war in February this year with the avowed aim of forcing an end to Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme, but also with the intention of uprooting the Islamic Revolutionary Guards in Tehran, has burnt its fingers. A resolute Iranian leadership caused major disruptions to the global energy supplies by blocking the Strait — through which a fifth of the world’s energy supplies across continents took place. The Strait became Iran’s lethal bargaining chip to browbeat Uncle Sam.

President Donald Trump states on his twitter handle – Truth Social that chances of an end to the war are “50-50” while American negotiators say Iran would give up its enrichment programme. Iran has not confirmed this, but expressed optimism on Sunday that “the number of ships passing through the Strait a day could soon return to pre-war levels,” signalling the prospects of normalcy. Before the war started, up to 140 ships transited the Strait a day carrying crude, LPG, fertilizers etc. After a complete halt, Iran allowed ships to selectively pass through there after imposing hefty tariffs, but later imposed a complete blockade on vessels carrying cargo to and from the West. Thus, Iran partly offset the economic loss it suffered in the war. But, the retaliatory US blockade on Iranian ports meant the Islamic nation faced difficulty in selling its oil. All these curbs could likely end in a week or two if the present negotiations — also involving Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir and some Gulf states including Israel fructify.

Significantly, having effected an abrupt ceasefire weeks ago, the US president is still facing pressure from home as well as from America’s Gulf allies and from public opinion around the world to halt the war once and for all. His latest response — that he has two options: hitting them “harder than ever” or “sign[ing] a deal that’s good” — meant the President is still keeping his options open. The problem, however, is that he has limited options. He has already used the full might of the US to bring Iran to its heel. Iran demonstrated its ability to retaliate and refused to both bend and crawl. Trump’s hidden agenda to get Iran’s oil for a song by installing a puppet regime there and thus make up for the huge economic losses his country suffered in this war, has failed. Clearly, he failed the Americans by what would now look like a misadventure. In a democracy, rulers cannot escape public retribution from their acts of omissions and commissions. The dictators in Iran need entertain no such worries.